Thinking Fast and Slow


Se trata de un libro muy recomendable que os ayudará a entender un poco mejor como funciona nuestro proceso de toma de decisiones.

Dejo a continuación algunos apuntes que me han llamado especialmente la atención:

Sobre como el pensamiento rápido prevalece sobre el pensamiento lento:
“When faced with a difficult question, we often answer an easier instead, usually without noticing substitution”

Interesante para los brainstorming en grupo:

“a simple rule can help: before an issue is discussed, all members of the committee should be asked to write a very brief summary of their position. This procedure makes good use of the value of diversity of knowledge and opinion in the group. The standard practice of open discussions gives too much weight to the opinion of those who speak early and assertively, causing others to line up behind”

interesante para cualquier proceso de negociación:

“if you consider how much you should pay for a house, you will be influenced by the asking Price. The same house will appear mora valuable if its listing Price is high tan if it’s low, even if you are determined to resist the influence of this number, and so on the list of anchoring effects is endless. Any number that you are asked to consider as a possible solution to an estimation problem will induce an anchoring effect”

Otro consejo interesante para las negociaciones cuando las posiciones de inicio están muy separadas:

“My advice to students when I taught negotiation was that if you think that other side has made an outrageous proposal, you should not come back with an equal outrageous counter offer, creating a gap that will be difficult to bridge in further negotiations. Instead you should make scene, storm out our threaten to do so, and make it clear (to yourself as well as to the other side) that you will not continue negotiation with that number on the table.”

Sobre como el entorno influye sobre nuestros pensamientos (ya conocéis la anécdota de que una mujer cuando se entera que está embarazada solo ve embarazadas por la calle!):

“The main moral of priming research is that our thoughts and our behavior are influenced, much more that we know or want, by the environment of the momento”

Interesante consejo para los inversores en bolsa:

“in a paper called “trading is hazardous for your wealth” they showed that, on average, the most active traders had the poorest results, while the investors who traded the least earned the highest returns”

“Closely following daily fluctuations is a losing propositions, because the pain of the frequent small losses exceeds the pleasure of the equally frequent small gains. Once a quarter is enough, and may be more tan enough for individual investors. In additions to improving the emotional quality of life, the deliberate avoidance of exposure to short-term outcomes improves the quality of both decisions and outcomes”

“A rational decision maker is interested only in the future consequences of current investments. Justifying earlier mistakes is not among the Econ’s concerns. The decision to invest additional resources in a losing account, when better investments are available, is known as the sunk-cost fallacy, a costly mistake that is observed in decisions large and small. Driving into the blizzard because one paid for tickets is a sunk-cost error”“ the sunk-cost fallacy keeps people for too long in poor Jobs, wrong investments, unhappy marriages, and unpromising research projects”

En el libro el autor explica que en la mayoría de los casos cualquier formula aritmética es más fiable que un análisis cualitativo. Pone un ejemplo divertido sobre el que se puede basar la felicidad en pareja. Aquí os lo dejo:

“in a memorable example, Dawes showed that marital stability is well predicted by a simple formula: FREQUENCY OF LOVE MAKING MINUS FREQUENCY OF QUARRELS
The important conclusion from this research is that an algorithm that is constructed on the back of an envelope is often good enough to compete with an optimally weighted formula, and certainly good enough to outdo expert judgement.
Whenever we can replace human judgement by a formula, we should at least consider it”

Consejo muy interesante para los procesos de selección de personal:

If you are serious about hiring the best possible candidate for the job, this is what you should do: First, select a few traits that are prerequisites for success in this position (technical proficiency, engaging personality, reliability, and so on…) Don’t over do it (six dimensions is a good number) The trait you choose should be as independent as possible from each other, and you should feel that you can assess them reliably y asking a few factual questions. Next, make a list of those questions for each trait and think about how you will score it, say on a scale 1 to 5. You should have an idea of what you call “very weak” or “very strong”. These preparations should take you half an hour or so, a small investment that can make a significant difference in the quality of the people you hire. To avoid halo effect, you must collect the information on one tray at a time, scoring each before you move on the next one. Do not skip around. To evaluate each candidate, add up the six scores. Because you are in charge of the final decision, you should not do a “close your eyes”

“Firmly resolve that you will hire the candidate whose final score is the highest, even if there is another on whom you like better (try to resist your wish to invent broken legs to change the ranking. A vast amount of research offers a promise: you are more likely to find the best candidate if you use this procedure that if you do what people normally do in such situations, which is to go into interviews unprepared and to make choices by an overall intuitive judgement such as “I looked into his eyes and i liked what I saw”

Sobre la vida en general:

“A story is about significant events and memorable moments, not about time passing”

“Helen was happy in the month of March” if she spent most of her time engaged in activities that she would rather continue tan stop, little time in situations she wished to escape, and – very important because life is short- not too much time in neutral state in which she would not care either way”

“it is only a slight exaggeration to say that happiness is the experience of spending time with people you love and who love you”

Si os ha gustado lo que habéis leído os paso los links de amazon en ingles y español.

Thinking fast and slow.

Pensar rápido, pensar despacio.